عنوان مقاله [English]
Most of the regions of the globe have faced changes in the precipitation regime and CO2 concentration with the increase in temperature (especially the minimum temperature). Considering that two-thirds of Iran is considered to be arid and semi-arid regions, which will cause climate changes and successive droughts, and this process will affect agricultural ecosystems and their performance. The aim of this research is to simulate the effects of climate change on growth, biomass yield and corn grain under climate change conditions in Shushtar and Safi Abad cities in the northern part of Khuzestan province in 2020-2050. For this purpose, the production data of precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and sunshine hours of the LARS-WG statistical model using HADCM3 atmospheric general circulation model and under emission scenarios A2 and B1 were used in the periods of 2020-2050. AquaCrop model was used to simulate plant performance and growth. Before use, the AquaCrop model was calibrated and verified by field data collected in the region. Then, the values of seed yield and biomass in future periods were simulated for the treatment of 50% of the water requirement of the plant. According to the results, under A2 emission scenarios, the evaluation results of the LARS-WG model showed that it had a suitable forecast for the climate parameters and the simulation of the future growing season. And the increase in minimum and maximum temperature will be the average increase in precipitation. The length of the growth period for each station will decrease with the increase of GDD according to the climatic parameters of the region under the influence of climate change. Biomass and grain yield will also increase by one to two tons in different horizons and scenarios assuming the current planting date and full irrigation remain constant.