نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
One of the most significant consequences of climate change is its impact on climatic zones which can may be investigated using climatic indices, The aim of this study is trend analysis of projected values of three climate indices, namely the Johansson Continental Index (JCI), the Kerner Oceanic Index (KOI), and the PINNA terrestrial composite index, for 18 selected stations across Iran under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in baseline period (1995–2024) and two future periods, i.e near (2025-2054) and far (2055-2084) using Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, Sen’s slope estimator, and Kendall’s tau correlation coefficient. The results showed a significant decreasing trend of Kerner Oceanity Index (KOI), in the near future at Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, Yasooj, Kermanshah, and Kerman stations persisted only at BandarAbbas in the far future under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, while Yazd, Isfahan, Zahedan, and Urmia stations shifted toward significant increasing trends. Regarding the Johansson Continentality Index (JCI), the continentality would intensify, with a significant increase from 8 to 12 stations namely Zahedan, BandarAbbas, Bushehr, Kerman, Khorramabad, Yasooj, Mashhad, Ahvaz, Urmia, Rasht, Isfahan, and Kermanshah while Semnan, Tehran, Tabriz, and Sari stations maintained a significant decreasing trend in is projected. For the Pina Index (PINNA), significant decreasing trends persisted at Rasht, Sari, Yasooj, Khoramabad, Kerman, BandarAbbas, and Zahedan stations; conversely, Yazd, Tabriz, Isfahan, and Semnan stations exhibited a shift with significant increasing trends. These patterns suggest heterogeneous variations in thermal and hydroclimatic regimes, reflecting widespread transformations in the climatic characteristic of the studied stations. These findings highlight the necessity of clustering entire stations across country for more accurate projections and developing regional climate adaptation programs, particularly for the vulnerable southern and eastern regions of the country.
کلیدواژهها English