هواشناسی کشاورزی

هواشناسی کشاورزی

بررسی روند متغیرهای اقلیمی موثر بر پوشش برف و آب معادل برف با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره‌ای و داده‌های زمینی در کوهستان سبلان -شمال غرب ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اهر، اهر، ایران
2 گروه عمران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اهر، اهر، ایران
3 گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تبریز، تبریز، ایران
چکیده
آب حاصل از ذوب پوشش برف در مناطق کوهستانی به سبب تاخیر زمان ذوب و توزیع تدریجی رواناب نقش بسیار مهمی در درتامین نیازهای آبی درطول ماه های بعدی دارد. در پژوهش حاضر با استفاده از سری تصاویرسنجنده لندست و داده‌های ایستگاه زمینی در طول دوره 21 ساله(2020-2000) روند تغییرات بیشینه و کمینه مساحت پوشش برف (SCA) ، SWR ، بارش، آب معادل برف (SWE)، نسبت برف به بارش و همچنین دمای کمینه، بیشینه ، فصلی ، ماهانه ومتوسط سالانه هوا، و نیز رابطه تغییرات SCA و SWE با متغیرهای بارش و دما با روش رگرسیون چندگانه گام‌به‌گام مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که کمینهSCA (عمدتا برای ماه آوریل) با نرخ سالانه 62/1 هکتار و در مجموع برای دوره مطالعاتی در حدود 34 هکتاربا روندی معنی‌دار(در سطح5 درصد) کاهش یافته است. علاوه بر آن در بین متغیرهای اقلیمی، دمای بیشینه فصل زمستان با نرخ سالانه حدود 12/0 درجه سانتی‌گراد طی دوره 21 ساله در حدود 5/2 درجه سانتی‌گراد افزایش یافته است. نتایج مدل رگرسیونی نیز نشان داد که SAC بیشینه و کمینه علاوه بر متغیر SWE به ترتیب با دمای کمینه سالانه و دمای بیشینه ماه سپتامبر دارای ضریب همبستگی چندگانه (R) برابربا 67/0 و 64/0 می‌باشد. همچنین ضریب همبستگی چندگانه SWR با متغیرهای SWE، دمای بیشینه تابستان و دمای کمینه سالانه حدود 94/0 تعیین شد. در مجموع نتایج حاصله نشان داد که در ارتفاعات سبلان پوشش یخچالی به طور معنی‌داری کاهش یافته است. با توجه به نقش مهم رواناب حاصل از ذوب برف در تامین نیاز آبی منطقه ، ادامه این روند و کاهش ذخایر یخچالی در بلند مدت، مدیریت منابع آب متکی به برف در منطقه مورد مطالعه را با چالش جدی مواجه خواهد کرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Trend analysis of climate variables effective on snow cover and equivalent water using satellite images and ground data in Sabalan mountain, Northwest Iran

نویسندگان English

zahra asgharpour 1
mehdi saghebian 2
karim amininia 1
ali panahi 3
1 Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Ahar Branch, Ahar, Iran
2 , Department of Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Ahar Branch, Ahar, Iran
3 Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz Branch, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده English

Abstract


Delayed and gradual melting of snow cover and resulting runoff plays a significant role in maintaining water resources demand in subsequent spring and summer seasons. Sabalan mountain in northwestern Iran remains snow-covered for approximately five months of the year. In this study, changes in the maximum and minimum snow-covered area (SCA), snow water equivalent (SWE), the snow-to-precipitation ratio precipitation, also annual, seasonal, and monthly minimum, maximum, and average temperature were examined using Landsat images and ground data for a 21-years period (2000–2020). The relationship between changes in SCA and SWE with precipitation and temperature variables was investigated by stepwise multiple regression. The findings revealed that the minimum SCA, mainly observed in April, decreased by approximately 34 hectares over 21 years at an annual rate of 1.62 hectares, (significance level of 5%). Among the climatic variables the maximum winter temperature increased by approximately 2.5°C during the 21-year period, i.e. an annual rate of 0.12°C. The regression model results indicated that the SWE was correlated to minimum and maximum SCA, and also the annual minimum temperature and the maximum September temperature, with multiple correlation coefficients (R) of 0.67 and 0.64 respectively. Furthermore, SWR showed a multiple correlation coefficient of approximately 0.94 with SWE, the maximum summer temperature, and the annual minimum temperature. The results of this study demonstrated a significant reduction in snow resources at higher altitudes of Sabalan Mountain. Considering the key role of snowmelt runoff in maintaining the water demand and long term decreasing trend of glacier zone area, the region would face substantial water management challenges.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Sabalan Highlands
snow cover
snow water resources
climate
Mann-Kendall
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