هواشناسی کشاورزی

هواشناسی کشاورزی

ارزیابی روش‌های تصحیح نگاشت چندکی داده‌های باز تحلیل بارش و دمای هوای AgMERRA و ERA5 در استان خراسان رضوی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکترا دانشگاه تهران
2 دانشیار گروه آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران
3 استاد بازنشسته گروه اگروتکنولوژی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد.
چکیده
هدف از این مطالعه ارزیابی روش‌های تصحیح نگاشت چندکی بر داده‌های باز تحلیل بارش و دمای هوای روزانه AgMERRA و ERA5 با استفاده از دو سنجه ارزیابی خطای RMSE و MAE و ضریب همبستگی پیرسون (r) در قالب نمودار تیلور است. به همین منظور از آمار روزانه دمای بیشینه، دمای کمینه و بارش در مقیاس روزانه طی دوره آماری 2010-1980 در 7 ایستگاه همدیدی استان خراسان رضوی استفاده شد. علاوه‌ بر این از آزمون من- کندال و شیب سن جهت تعیین روند و بزرگی آن در داده‌ها استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد دمای کمینه و بیشینه دارای روندی افزایشی و معنادار بوده‌اند بطوریکه شیب افزایش روند دمای کمینه در هر سه مجموعه داده بیشتر از داده‌های دمای بیشینه می‌باشد. همچنین داده‌های بارش دارای روندی کاهشی اما این روند کاهشی در بیشتر ایستگاه‌ها معنادار نمی‌باشد. علاوه براین سنجه‌های ارزیابی خطای دو مجموعه داده ERA5 و AgMERRA در مقابل داده‌های مشاهداتی نشان داد هر دو مجموعه داده تخمین خوبی از دمای بیشینه و کمینه زده‌اند بطوریکه شاخص‌های MAE و RMSE دارای مقادیر کم و خوبی می‌باشند. همبستگی داده‌های دمای بیشینه و کمینه نیز تغییراتی بین 7/0 تا 9/0 دارد بطوریکه بیشترین همبستگی‌ها مربوط به داده‌های ERA5 می‌باشد. اما در مورد کمیت بارش همبستگی آن خصوصاً برای داده‌های AgMERRA پایین می‌باشد. از بین روش‌های تصحیح نگاشت چندکی روش PTF:Scale، کارایی بهتری نسبت به سایر روش‌ها در تصحیح داده‌های بازتحلیل دارد بطوریکه در هر دو مجموعه داده باعث کاهش سنجه‌های RMSE و MAE شده است. ضریب همبستگی پیرسون در همه ایستگاه‌ها نسبت به قبل از تصحیح افزایش یافته است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Evaluation of quantile mapping correction methods on AgMERRA and ERA5 precipitation and air temperature reanalysis data in Khorasan Razavi Province

نویسندگان English

Saeedeh Kamali 1
NOZAR GHAHREMAN 2
mohammad Bannayan 3
1 PhD student, University of tehran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
3 Professor, Dept of Agro Technology Eiderdown University of Mashhad
چکیده English

The aim of this study is to evaluate the quantile mapping methods for the bia correction of reanalysis data of AgMERRA and ERA5 daily precipitation and air temperature data. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) were used to assess the performance of the correction methods and corresponding Taylor diagrams were drawn for comparative assessment. Daily observed data of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation during the period of 1980-2010 from seven synoptic stations in Khorasan-e-Razavi Province were used. In addition, the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope were used to determine the trend and its magnitude in the data. The results indicated that both minimum and maximum temperatures exhibited a significant increasing trend, such that the slope of the minimum temperature increase in all three data sets is higher than that of the maximum temperature data. Also, the precipitation data have a decreasing trend, but this decreasing trend is not significant at most stations. In addition, the error evaluation metrics of the two data sets, ERA5 and AgMERRA, compared to the observational data, showed that both data sets have made a good estimate of the maximum and minimum temperatures, such that the MAE and RMSE indices have low and good values. The correlation of the maximum and minimum temperature data also varies between 0.7 and 0.9, with the highest correlations related to ERA5 data. However, in the case of precipitation, the correlation values were low, especially for AgMERRA data. Among the quantile mapping correction methods, the PTF: Scale method has better efficiency than other methods in correcting the reanalysis data, as it has reduced the RMSE and MAE measures in both data sets. The Pearson correlation coefficient has increased at all stations compared to before correction.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

AgMERRA
Bias correction
ERA5
Khorasan e Razavi Province
Taylor diagram
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