هواشناسی کشاورزی

هواشناسی کشاورزی

آشکارسازی روند نمایه‌های حدی بارش با تحلیل فضایی - زمانی (مطالعه موردی: استان اردبیل)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
چکیده
در سال‌های اخیر، وقوع پدیده‌های حدی اقلیمی نسبت به ده های گذشته افزایش‌یافته است. با هدف تحلیل فضایی - زمانی نمایه‌های حدی بارش در استان اردبیل، از داده‌های اقلیمی روزانه ایستگاه‌های همدید خلخال، اردبیل و پارس‌آباد در دوره آماری پایه ۲۰۲۰-۱۹۹۳ استفاده شد. نمایه‌های حدی با استفاده از بسته نرم‌افزاری RClimDex و روند تغییرات آن‌ها با استفاده از آزمون من - کندال اصلاح‌شده و تخمین‌گر شیب سن محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان داد که در مرکز و جنوب استان اردبیل، هیچ‌کدام از نمایه‌های حدی بارش، روند افزایشی نداشتند و اکثر نمایه‌های حدی دارای روند کاهشی (غیرمعنی‌دار) بودند. در شمال استان اردبیل (پارس‌آباد) بیشتر نمایه‌های حدی بارش دارای روند افزایشی (غیرمعنی‌دار) بودند. روند نمایه‌های حدی روزهای خشک متوالی (CDD) و بارش در روزهای خیلی مرطوب (R95p) در کل استان اردبیل کاهشی (غیرمعنی‌دار) بود. بیشترین شیب کاهشی نمایه CDD با ۳۲/۰- روز در سال در پارس‌آباد و بیشترین شیب کاهشی نمایه R95p با ۸۷/۰- میلی‌متر بر سال در اردبیل بود. نمایه‌های حداکثر بارش یک‌روزه (Rx1day)، حداکثر بارش پنج‌روزه (Rx5day)، نمایه ساده شدت بارش روزانه (SDII) و بارش در روزهای شدیداً مرطوب (R99p) در شمال استان به‌ترتیب با شیب ۰۷/۰+ میلی‌متر (بر سال)، ۰۷/۰+ میلی‌متر (بر سال)، ۰۲/۰+ میلی‌متر بر روز (بر سال) و ۱/۰ میلی‌متر (بر سال)، روند افزایشی داشتند. این نمایه‌ها در اردبیل و خلخال کاهشی یا بدون روند بودند. نمایه تعداد روزهای با بارش سنگین (R10mm) در پارس‌آباد افزایشی (۱/۰ روز بر سال)، در اردبیل کاهشی (۰۷/۰- روز بر سال) و در خلخال بدون روند بود. روند تغییرات مجموع بارش سالانه در ایستگاه همدید خلخال و پارس‌آباد به‌ترتیب با شیب سن ۰۵/۰ و ۳۰/۱ میلی‌متر بر سال افزایشی (غیرمعنی‌دار) و در ایستگاه همدید اردبیل با شیب سن ۴۱/۱- کاهشی (غیرمعنی‌دار) است. به‌طورکلی، روند هیچ‌کدام از نمایه‌های حدی بارش در استان اردبیل (در سطح ۹۵%). معنی‌دار نبود. نتایج پژوهش حاضر می‌تواند در زمینه مدیریت رویدادهای حدی بارش ازجمله سیلاب‌ها و خشکسالی‌ها مفید واقع شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Detection of extreme precipitation indices trend with spatio-temporal analysis (Case study: Ardabil Province)

نویسندگان English

Pouya Allahverdipour
Yagob Dinpashoh
Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده English

In recent years, climate extreme events have increased compared to the past decades. The aim of this study was spatio-temporal analysis of extreme precipitation indices in Ardabil province, using the daily precipitation data of several stations namely Khalkhal, Ardabil, and Parsabad during the baseline period of 1993-2020. Extreme precipitation indices were calculated using the RClimDex software package and their trend were calculated based on the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope estimator. The results showed no increasing trend in extreme precipitation indices in the central and southern regions of Ardabil province, most of the extreme indices had a non-significant decreasing trend. In the northern station of Parsabad, most of the indices had a non-significant increasing trend. Considering the entire province, the trend of the CDD and R95p extreme indices was decreasing (non-significant). The highest decreasing slope of the CDD index with -0.32 days per year, was observed in Parsabad and the highest decreasing slope of the R95p index with -0.87 mm per year, was in observed in Ardabil. In the north of the province, the Rx1day, Rx5day, SDII, and R99p indices were increasing with a slope of +0.07 mm, +0.07 mm, +0.02 mm, and 0.1 mm (per year), respectively. In Ardabil and Khalkhal stations, no significant or a slight decreasing trend was observed. The R10mm index was increasing in Parsabad (0.1 days per year), decreasing in Ardabil (0.07 days per year), while its trend in Khalkhal was non-significant. The trend of changes in total annual precipitation for Khalkhal and Parsabad stations was increasing (non-significant) with a slope of 0.05 and 1.30 mm per year, respectively, and decreasing (non-significant) in Ardabil station with a slope of -1.41 mm. year-1. In general, none of the extreme precipitation indices in Ardabil province showed significant trend (at the 95% level). The results of the current study can be used in of extreme precipitation events, such as floods and droughts management.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Ardabil
Precipitation
Climate Change
Trend
Extreme Event
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