هواشناسی کشاورزی

هواشناسی کشاورزی

بررسی اثرات محتمل تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد پنبه دیم و آبی تحت سناریوهای SSP در منطقه گرگان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری
2 هیأت علمی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
3 دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
4 علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
5 هیات علمی
چکیده
دراین مطالعه برای بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد پنبه در منطقه هاشم آباد گرگان با استفاده از 38 سال داده‌های هواشناسی این ایستگاه و مولد Lars-WG، یک دوره 80 ساله داده‌های ‌اقلیمی تحت سه سناریوی گزارش ششم IPCC و برونداد مدل HadGEM3 تولید شد. جهت پیش‌ بینی عملکرد پنبه دیم و آبی تحت تاثیر تغییر اقلیم ، از مدل آب و هوا - محصول واسنجی شده SSM استفاده گردید. تحلیل روند و جهش در سری‌های عملکرد با استفاده از آزمون‌های من-کندال و پتیت انجام و سناریوی تغییر تاریخ کشت نیز با 4 تأخیر 15 روزه از 15 خرداد اعمال شد. در دوره پایه، روند میانگین دمای بیشینه و کمینه هوا و سرعت باد افزایشی ولی رطوبت نسبی کاهشی بوده است. روند معنی داری در بارش سالانه ایستگاه مشاهد نشد. اما در دوره اقلیمی آینده علاوه بر بیشینه و کمینه دمای هوا، بارش سالانه نیز تحت هر 3 سناریوی اقلیمی افزایش می‌یابد. عملکرد پنبه فاریاب به جز 2 مورد تحت سناریوی SSP245 با تاریخ کشت‌های زودتر، در تمام سناریوهای اقلیمی و تاریخ‌های کشت کاهش می‌یابد.  شیب این تغییرات کاهشی تحت سناریو SSP585 بیشتر و در سناریوی SSP245 کمتر می‌باشد ولی عملکرد پنبه در کشت دیم بیشتر تحت تأثیر تاریخ کشت بوده و در تاریخ کشت آخر، از روند معنی‌دار و شیب تغییرات بیشتری برخوردار است. در کشت دیم نوسانات سالانه عملکردی در آینده بیشتر خواهد شد و در برخی از سال‌ها به دلیل افزایش بارش، عملکرد بیش از 5/1 تن در هکتار نیز پیش نگری شد. با تایید روندهای معنی دار متغیرهای اقلیمی طی دوره پایه، توصیه می شود طی دوره آینده کاشت پنبه آبی زودتر انجام شود. درمورد پنبه دیم بررسی های بیشتر در خصوص نوسانات بارش پیش نگری شده ضرورت دارد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Investigation the possible impacts of climate change on rainfed and irrigated cotton yield under SSP scenarios in Gorgan region

نویسندگان English

Maral Sarkari 1
Khalil Ghorbani 2
محمد عبدالحسینی 3
Meysam Salarijazi 4
Aboutaleb Hezarjaribi 5
1 PhD student
2 Faculty member of Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources
3 Faculty member
4 Faculty member
5 Faculty member
چکیده English

In this study the 38-year period of observed meteorological data of Hashem Abad station in Gorleston province north of Iran was used to generated 80 years of climatic data under the SSP climate change scenarios by the Lars-WG weather generator, to investigate possible impacts of climate change on irrigated and rainfed cotton in the region. The calibrated SSM crop -weather model was employed for yield simulation. Trend analysis of yield times series was performed using the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests. Four predefined different planting dates with 15-days interval starting from June 5th were also considered as possible adaption options. During baseline period an increasing trend of mean maximum and minimum air temperature and wind speed and decreasing trend in relative humidity was observed. Annual precipitation did not show any significant trend or jump point. For the future period, an increasing trend for annual precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperatures, under all three climate change scenarios is projected. The irrigated cotton yield, except for 2 cases under the SSP245 scenario with earlier planting dates, under most climatic scenarios and planting dates would decrease. The slope of these decreasing changes is greater under the SSP585 scenario comparing to SSP245 scenario. However, the rainfed cotton yield is more influenced by the planting date. The most delayed planting date shows significant yield trend and jump point with a greater slope. In rainfed cultivation, annual yield fluctuations will increase in the future, and an average 1.5 t/ha increase for some years is projected. Ultimately, some significant trends in climatic variables have been detected in this station and it is projected to be further in future. Earlier planting of cotton can recommend. In case of rainfed crop, further investigation on rainfall variability in future is required for more precise results.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Climate Change
SSM
Rainfed
Cotton
Gorgan
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