هواشناسی کشاورزی

هواشناسی کشاورزی

بررسی اثرات نوسانات اقلیمی بر تولید گندم دیم و آبی منطقه رودبار استان گیلان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 محقق بخش تحقیقات اقتصادی، اجتماعی و ترویج کشاورزی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گیلان، سازمان تحقیقات،آموزش و ترویج
2 استادیار بخش تحقیقات زراعی-باغی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گیلان، سازمان تحقیقات،آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، رشت، ایران
3 محقق بخش تحقیقات جنگلها، مراتع و آبخیزداری ، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گیلان، سازمان تحقیقات،آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی،
4 مسئول آمار و داده های اداره کل هواشناسی استان گیلان
چکیده
تغییر اقلیم، به‌عنوان یکی از چالش­های مهم اثرگذار بر اکوسیستم­های زمین، ضمن ایجاد محدودیت در تولید محصولات پایدار، بر جنبه‌های اجتماعی و ­محیط­زیستی نیز اثر منفی گذاشته است. همچنین تغییرات آب و هوایی از طریق تغییر در متغیرهای اقلیمی مانند دما، بارندگی و رطوبت مستقیماً بر بخش کشاورزی تأثیر خواهد گذاشت. ازاین‌رو در پژوهش حاضر اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر تولید گندم به تفکیک دیم و آبی در شهرستان رودبار استان گیلان مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. به همین جهت از داده­های ایستگاه هواشناسی منجیل و آمارنامه کشاورزی شهرستان رودبار طی سال­های 1379-1399 و رهیافت اقتصادسنجی خودرگرسیون برداری با وقفه توزیعی (ARDL) استفاده ‌شده است. نتایج کوتاه و بلندمدت نشان داد که نوع اثرگذاری متغیرهای اقلیمی میانگین دما، میانگین بارش و رطوبت نسبی بر میزان تولید گندم دیم و آبی در بلندمدت معنی­دار و مشابه است؛ اما میزان اثرگذاری متغیرهای مذکور بر تولید گندم دیم بیشتر از آبی بوده است. به‌طوری‌که با یک درصد افزایش در میانگین دما، میزان تولید گندم دیم و آبی به ترتیب 04/3 و 2/1 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت. همچنین با افزایش یک‌درصدی میزان بارش، میزان تولید گندم دیم و آبی به ترتیب 57/0 و 4/0 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. از سوی دیگر با افزایش یک درصدی رطوبت نسبی نیز میزان تولید گندم دیم و آبی 28/0 و 06/0 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. به جهت کاهش اثرات منفی تغییر اقلیم، آگاه­سازی تولیدکنندگان نسبت به عواقب تغییر اقلیم و کشت گونه­های مقاوم و متناسب با اقلیم هر منطقه پیشنهاد می­گردد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Modeling the effects of climate change on rainfed and irrigated wheat production in Gilan province

نویسندگان English

Seyed Mohammadreza Mahdavian 1
Fatemeh Askari 1
Mehran Gholami 2
Shariyar Sobhezahedi 3
Faezeh Shabanzadeh 4
1 Researcher ,Economic, Social and Extension Research Department, Gilan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization(AREEO), Rasht, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Crop & Horticulture Department, Gilan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization(AREEO), Rasht, Iran
3 Researcher, Forestry, Rangeland and Watershed Research Department, Gilan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization(AREEO), Rasht, Iran
4 Responsible for statistics and data of the General Directorate of Meteorology of Gilan Province
چکیده English

Climate change, as one of the important challenges affecting the earth's ecosystems, while creating limitations in the production of sustainable products, has also had a negative impact on social and environmental aspects. Also, climate change will directly affect the agricultural sector through changes in climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall and humidity. Thus, in the current research, the effects of climate change on wheat production separately from rainfed and irrigated in Rudbar city of Gilan province will be investigated. For this reason, the data of Manjil meteorological station and the agricultural statistics of Rudbar city during the years 1379-1399 and the econometric approach of ARDL have been used. The results showed that the type of influence of climate variables average temperature, average precipitation and relative humidity on the amount of rainfed and irrigated wheat production in the long term is significant and similar; However, the effect of the mentioned variables on the production of rainfed wheat was more than that of irrigated wheat. So, with a one percent increase in the average temperature, the amount of rainfed and irrigated wheat production will decrease by 3.04 and 1.2 percent, respectively. Also, with a 1% increase in rainfall, the amount of rainfed and irrigated wheat production will increase by 0.57% and 0.4%, respectively. On the other hand, with an increase of one unit of relative humidity, the amount of rainfed and irrigated wheat production will increase by 0.28 and 0.06 units. In order to reduce the negative effects of climate change, it is suggested to inform producers about the consequences of climate change and to cultivate resistant species suitable for the climate of each region.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Modeling
Climate Change
Wheat
Temperature
Precipitation
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دوره 12، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 23
دوره 12، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 23، مرداد 1402، صفحه 1-100(جلد 12، شماره 1، بهار و تابستان 1403)
مرداد 1403
صفحه 35-49