هواشناسی کشاورزی

هواشناسی کشاورزی

تخمین مقادیر تابش خورشیدی با استفاده از معادله آنگستروم –پرسکات و الگوریتم ماشین بردار پشتیبان (مطالعه موردی شهر سنندج)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا همدان، ایران
2 گروه آبیاری و زهکشی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران
3 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران
10.22125/agmj.2024.418579.1159
چکیده
در این مطالعه با واسنجی و اعتبار سنجی ضرایب معادله تجربی آنگستروم-پرسکات برای شهر سنندج طی دوره آماری 2010 تا 2021، میزان تابش خورشیدی به روش حداقل مربعات خطا و ماشین­بردار پشتیبان (SVM) تخمین زده شد و نتایج با داده­های اندازه­گیری مقایسه گردید. ضرایب معادله آنگستروم–پرسکات با دقت مناسبی برابر 22/0=a و 54/0=b تعیین گردید و نتایج آنالیز آماری مقایسه تابش اندازه­گیری شده با پیرانومتر و برآورد شده توسط معادله آنگستروم – پرسکات واسنجی شده (مقادیر بالای R2 و مقادیر پایین RMSE، MBE) نشان داد که بکارگیری معادله در برآورد مقدار تابش خورشیدی رسیده به سطح زمین در این ایستگاه از درجه اعتبار قابل قبولی برخوردار است. مدل هوشمند SVM در تعیین ضرایب معادله آنگستروم-پرسکات و توسعه معادله رگرسیونی در برآورد تابش خورشیدی نسبت به روش­های تجربی عملکرد بهتری داشت (98/0R2= ،3/1RMSE= و 73/0RMSE=). برای بررسی تأثیر متغیرهای اقلیمی در برآورد تابش خورشیدی از روش تحلیل حساسیت استفاده شد. برای این منظور شش مدل مختلف تعریف شد. نتایج نشان داد که با حذف بارندگی در متغیرهای ورودی، ضریب همبستگی افزایش و میزان خطا کاهــش می­یابد (94/0R2= و 99/1RMSE=). اثر رطوبت نسبی و سرعت باد در برآورد تابش خورشیدی یکسان بود. بررسی و تحلیل مدل­های مختلف نشان داد ساعات آفتابی، دمای بیشینه و دمای کمنینه بیشترین همبستگی را با تابش برآورد شده دارند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Determining Angstrom-Prescott equation coefficients and estimating solar radiation values using SVM method (Case study: Sanandaj city)

نویسندگان English

sattar zandsalimi 1
chonor abdi 2
Hamid Zare Abyaneh 3
1 PH.D Student of Irrigation and drainage, Department of Water Engineering- Faculty of Agricultural- Bu- Ali Sina University- Hamedan- Iran
2 PH.D Student of Irrigation and drainage, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural- Bu- Ali Sina University Hamedan- Iran
3 Department of Water Engineering- Faculty of Agricultural- Bu- Ali Sina University- Hamedan .Iran
چکیده English

In this study, the Angstrom Prescot equation was calibrated for estimation of solar radiation variable in Sanandaj station west of Iran during the 2010 to 2021period using the least square error method and intelligent Support Vector Machine (SVM). The estimated values results were compared with the observed data. The coefficients of Angstrom-Prescott equation, a and b were determined 0.22 and 0.54, respectively. The statistical measures of R2 and RMSE indicated acceptable accuracy of this empirical equation in study station. Intelligent SVM model performed better in determining the Angstrom-Prescott equation coefficients in solar radiation estimation comparing to experimental methods (R2=0.98, RMSE=1.3 and RMSE=0.73). To investigate the effect of climatic variables in solar radiation estimation a sensitivity analysis using six different models were performed. The results showed that by excluding rainfall, the correlation coefficient increases and the estimation error decreases (R2=0.94 and RMSE=1.99). The effect of relative humidity and wind speed in estimating solar radiation was almost same. The analysis of different models showed that in the study station, sunshine hours, maximum and minimum temperature are the most significant variables in solar radiation estimation.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Angstrom-Prescott equation
Solar radiation
Sanandaj
SVM
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