هواشناسی کشاورزی

هواشناسی کشاورزی

استفاده از مدل‌های هوش مصنوعی برای پیش‌بینی دمای روزانه هوا در شهر رشت

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکترا، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه تبریز و کارشناس کنترل و پایداری، شرکت سهامی آب منطقه‌ای گیلان
2 کارشناس برق – الکترونیک، سرپرست سد و نیروگاه سد سفیدرود، شرکت سهامی آب منطقه‌ای گیلان
3 دانشجوی دکترا، مهندسی عمران-مدیریت منابع آب ، دانشگاه آزاد علوم و تحقیقات تهران و کارشناس کنترل و پایداری، شرکت سهامی آب منطقه‌ای گیلان
4 کارشناس ارشد کامپیوتر – نرم افزار دانشگاه گیلان و کارشناس فناوری اطلاعات، شرکت سهامی آب منطقه‌ای گیلان
چکیده
برآورد دمای هوا اهمیت زیادی در علوم کشاورزی و محیط زیست دارد. در تحقیق حاضر برای پیش‌بینی مقادیر کمینه، بیشینه و متوسط دمای هوای ایستگاه شهر رشت ازچند مدل هوش مصنوعی استفاده شد. با وجود تفاوت اندک در دقت مدل‌های مذکور در پیش‌بینی عوامل دمایی، سیستم استنتاج عصبی- فازی تطبیقی، شبکه عصبی مصنوعی و برنامه‌ریزی بیان ژن به ترتیب در اولویت‌های اول تا سوم رتبه‌بندی شدند. همچنین روابط ریاضی بین متغیرهای ورودی و خروجی توسط مدل برنامه‌ریزی بیان‌ ژن ارائه شد که برتری این مدل بر دو مدل دیگر را نشان داد. بر اساس شاخص SI در دوره آموزش دمای کمینه و روزانه در محدوده 1/0 تا 2/0 قرار دارند که در رتبه‌بندی از نظر دقت پیش‌بینی، خوب و دمای بیشینه در محدوده 2/0 تا 3/0 قرار دارد که متوسط ارزیابی می‌شود. نتایج نشان داد که اجرای مدل‌ها با بکارگیری داده‌های ورودی از یک تا سه روز قبل دارای بهترین عملکرد در پیش‌بینی هستند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Application of artificial intelligent models for prediction of daily air temperature in Rasht station

نویسندگان English

Hosein Hakimi KHansar 1
Abbas Heydari 2
Saeed Rashedi 3
Ali Bagheri 4
1 Ph.D Candidate, University of Tabriz / Department of Water Engineerin and Expert in control and stability of water structures, Gilan Regional Water Authority
2 Bachelor of Electrical-Electronics, Superintendent of Sefidroud Dam and Power Plant, Gilan Regional Water Authority
3 PhD Candidate, civil engineering-water resources management, Tehran Azad University of Science and Research, Expert in control and stability of water structures, Gilan Regional Water Authority
4 Master of Computer - Software, University of Guilan and Information Technology Expert, Gilan Regional Water Authority
چکیده English

Estimation of air temperature is importan in environmental and agricultural sciences. The aim of this study is prediction of daily air temperature (mean, maximum and minimum) using several types of AI models, in Rasht station north of Iran. According to the results, the adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system, artificial neural network, and gene expression programming were ranked first, second and third, respectively, despite of a slight difference in prediction accuracy of the selected models. Besides, the developed mathematical equation between the input and output variables using the gene expression programming model showed the superiority of this approach to the other two models. Based on the SI index for the minimum and mean daily temperature in training period is varied in range of 0.1 to 0.2, i.e acceptable in terms of model accuracy. For the maximum temperature it ranged 0.2 to 0.3 which is considered as average accuracy. The findings revelead the best performance can be obtained using inputs in one to three days lead time.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Air temperature
ANN
Fuzzy neural inference system
Gene expression programming
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دوره 12، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 23
دوره 12، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 23، مرداد 1402، صفحه 1-100(جلد 12، شماره 1، بهار و تابستان 1403)
مرداد 1403
صفحه 5-19