ارزیابی روشهای تجزیه سری زمانی و تبدیل موجک گسسته حداکثر همپوشانی در روندیابی متغیرهای هواشناسی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید مدنی آذربایجان، تبریز، ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی علوم و مهندسی باغبانی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید مدنی آذربایجان، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

در این تحقیق تاثیر دو رهیافت تجزیه مد تجربی (EMD) و تبدیل موجک گسسته حداکثر همپوشانی (MODWT) بر پردازش سری زمانی متغیرهای دمای میانگین، سرعت باد و بارندگی در مقیاسهای زمانی سالانه، ماهانه و تک ماه ها ارزیابی شد. ایستگاه‌های منتخب شامل رامسر، کرمانشاه، همدان، سمنان، مشهد، شیراز، اردبیل، ارومیه، زنجان، یزد، تبریز، مراغه و میانه بودند. در تجزیه سری زمانی به روش EMD، روند برخی از زیر سری‌های‌ ترکیبی و در رهیافت MODWT، روند برخی از زیر سری‌ها با نتایج روند آزمون من- کندال سری زمانی اصلی داده ها همخوانی داشتند، میزان این تطابق متاثر از مقدار عددی آماره من- کندال سری زمانی اصلی و علامت آن نیز می باشد. سطح معنی‌داری آزمون من-ویتنی در مقایسه سری زمانی اصلی داده های مشاهداتی (سالانه) با زیر سری‌های حاصل از دو رهیافت بیشتر از 05/0 بود که حاکی از عملکرد قابل قبول رهیافتهای EMD و MODWT است. بررسی کلی نشان داد، در تمام مقایسات زیر سری‌های هر رهیافت با سری اصلی در هر ایستگاه، مقدار متوسط سطح معنی-داری رهیافت MODWT بیشتر از EMD می‌باشد. همچنین میانگین سطح معنی‌داری سری زمانی دما از سری‌های بارندگی و سرعت باد بیشتر بوده است. آزمون LSD در سطح اطمینان 95٪ حاکی از انطباق روند سری‌های زمانی اصلی و زیر سری‌های ترکیبی است و مهارت این دو رهیافت را تایید می کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of empirical mode decomposition and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform approaches in trend analysis of meteorological variables

نویسندگان [English]

  • L. Parviz 1
  • A. Beyrami 2
1 Associate professor, Faculty of Agriculture, Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Tabriz, Iran
2 B. Sc. in Horticultural Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this study, the effect of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) approaches in the processing of average temperature, wind speed and precipitation annual, monthly and single month time scales were evaluated. The selected study stations were Ramsar, Kermanshah, Hamadan, Semnan, Mashhad, Shiraz, Ardabil,Urmia, Zanjan, Yazd, Tabriz, Maragheh and Mianeh. In the time series decomposition using EMD, the trend of combined sub-series and in MODWT, the trend of sub-series was consistent with the Mann-Kendall test values of observed data time series, although, it can also be affected with the value and sign of of Mann-Kendall statistic. The significance level of The Mann-Whitney test in comparison of main annual observed time series with subseries of both approaches was more than 0.05, which indicates the acceptable performance of EMD and MODWT. In general, the comparisons of the sub-series of two approach with the main time series in each station, showed that the corresponding significance level for MODWT approach is higher than EMD. Also, the average of significance level for temperature series greater than those of precipitation and wind speed series. The LSD test at the 95% confidence level indicates good agreement of the observed data time series and combined sub-series.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Empirical mode decomposition
  • Wavelet transform
  • Processing
  • Trend
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