بررسی تغییرات تبخیرتعرق پتانسیل در شرایط اقلیمی آینده تحت سناریوهای واداشت تابشی (مطالعه موردی: ایستگاه بندر انزلی)
20.1001.1.23453419.1400.9.1.7.4

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهیدباهنر کرمان

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهیدباهنر کرمان

چکیده

بهبود برآوردهای تبخیرتعرق پتانسیل (ETp) در تعیین دقیق نیاز آبی گیاهان بویژه در شرایط تغییر اقلیم اهمیت زیادی دارد. در این مطالعه تبخیرتعرق پتانسیل در ایستگاه بندر انزلی با استفاده از دو روش هارگریوز- سامانی و تورنت-وایت بر اساس داده‌های دوره 1985-2018 مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. مدل آماری SDSM جهت مقیاس‌کاهی خروجی‌های مدل گردش عمومی CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای واداشت تابشی (RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5) استفاده شد. برای ارزیابی و پیش‌نگری داده‌های اقلیمی، دوره آماری 2018-1986 به عنوان دوره پایه و دو دوره آماری 2050-2025 و 2100-2075 به عنوان دوره‌های پیش‌نگری استفاده شدند. بر اساس نتایج حاصله، دما تحت همه سناریوها و برای هر دو دوره زمانی آینده روندی افزایشی خواهد داشت. نتایج نشان داد که p‏ET از سال 2025 تا 2100 تحت سه سناریو افزایش خواهد یافت به جز در روش تورنت-وایت که در دوره زمانی 2075-2100 در ماه مارس کاهش پیدا خواهد کرد. در سناریوی RCP2.6، بیشترین مقدار افزایش p‏ET در روش تورنت-وایت در ماه ژوئیه و برابر با 55 میلی‌متر به دست آمد. این مقدار در روش هارگریوز-سامانی برابر با 63/1 میلی‌متر در ماه آوریل محاسبه شد. در سناریوی RCP4.5 بیشترین مقدار افزایش در ETp در روش تورنت-وایت در ماه ژوئیه (برابر با 96/54 میلی‌متر) و در روش هارگریوز-سامانی در ماه ژانویه (برابر با 45/1 میلی‌متر) طی دوره 2025 تا 2100 به دست آمد. در سناریوی RCP8.5 بیشترین مقدار افزایش در تبخیرتعرق پتانسیل در روش تورنت-وایت در ماه ژوئن (برابر با 34/40 میلی‌متر) و در روش هارگریوز-سامانی در ماه ژانویه (برابر با 72/1 میلی‌متر) طی همان دوره محاسبه گردید. همچنین، کمترین افزایش p‏ET در سناریوی RCP4.5 بین سال‌های 2025 و 2050 و در سناریوی RCP8.5 بین سال‌های 2075 و 2100رخ خواهد داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Projected changes of potential evapotranspiration under RCP climate change scenarios (Case study: Bandar Anzali)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ferdos Heshmati 1
  • Nasrin Sayari 2
1 M.Sc. Student in Water Resources Engineering, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
2 Assisstant Professor Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]

Accurate estimation of potential evapotranspiration is crucial in crop water use determination especially under climate change conditions. In this study, the changes of potential evapotranspiration values estimated using Hargreaves-Samani and Thornthwaite methods were investigated during the baseline period, 1986–2018. For future projection, the outputs of the general circulation model (CanESM2) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled using SDSM statistical model during near and far future periods (2025-2050 and 2075-2100). The simulation results showed a rise in temperature in future periods and all scenarios. The results showed that ETp will increase from 2025 to 2100 under three scenarios, except for the Thornthwaite method estimations in March. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the highest increase in ETp in the Thornthwaite method was obtained in July, equal to 55 mm. This value was calculated in the Hargreaves-Samani method equal to 1.63 mm in April. In the RCP4.5 scenario and near future period, the projected rise in ETp values by Thornthwaite method in month of July is 54.96 mm and Hargreaves-Samani method for month of January was 1.45 mm. These values for the same month and methods, in case of RCP8.5 scenario, were 40.34 and 1.72 mm, respectively. According to the results, the lowest increase in ETp will occur in the RCP4.5 scenario between years 2025 and 2050 and in the RCP8.5 scenario between years 2075 and 2100.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • evapotranspiration
  • SDSM
  • RCP Scenarios
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