یادداشت فنی: تأثیرات محتمل تغییر اقلیم بر مناطق مستعد کشت گندم دیم در استان کردستان

نوع مقاله: یادداشت فنی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد کشاورزی اکولوژیک، گروه زراعت، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شاهد، تهران

2 استادیارگروه زراعت، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شاهد، تهران

3 کارشناس ارشد هواشناسی کشاورزی، سازمان هواشناسی کشور، تهران

4 دانشجوی دکتری زراعت، گروه زراعت، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران

چکیده

هدف از این مطالعه بررسی اثرات محتمل تغییر اقلیم بر مناطق مساعد کشت گندم دیم در بخش‌هایی منتخب از استان کردستان با استفاده از مدل HadCM3 تحت سه سناریوی انتشار (B1، A1B و A2) در دوره 2030-2011 می‌باشد. برای ریزمقیاس‌نمایی خروجی‌های این مدل، مولد داده LARS-WG مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. پهنه‎بندی مناطق مستعد کشت گندم دیم در محیط سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی ArcGIS نسخه 9.3 انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد که در دوره پایه (2010-1991) پهنه‌های مناسب برای کشت گندم دیم، در غرب و شمال غرب استان (محدوده ایستگاه‌های بانه، مریوان و سقز) واقعند که حدود 6/28 درصد از مساحت استان را در بر می‌گیرند. نتایج پهنه‎بندی نشان داد که تحت سناریوهای B1، A1B و A2 در آینده محدوده مناسب برای کشت گندم دیم 4/34 درصد افزایش می‌یابد و حدود 63 درصد مساحت استان را شامل خواهد شد. بین سناریوهای مورد بررسی (B1، A1B و A2) اختلاف معنی‌داری در تغییر سطح مناطق مطلوب دیم‌کاری گندم مشاهده نشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Technical Note: Possible effects of climate change on suitable rain-fed wheat cultivation regions in Kurdistan province

نویسندگان [English]

  • H. R. Amiri 1
  • H. Habibih 2
  • M. Haghighat 3
  • H. Eyni-Nargeseh 4
1 M. Sc. Graduate in Agroecology, Department of Agronomy, faculty of Agronomy, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Agronomy, faculty of Agronomy, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran
3 M. Sc. in Agricultural Meteorology, Iran Meteorological Organization, Tehran, Iran
4 Ph. D. Candidate, Department of Agronomy, faculty of Agronomy, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

This study was aimed to investigate the possible effects of climate change on rain-fed wheat cultivation regions in Kurdistan province, Iran, using HadCM3 model outputs under three climate change scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) during 2011-2030 period. The statistical weather generator model, LARS-WG was used to downscale climate variables. The agroclimatic zoning of suitable regions was performed utilizing ArcGIS 9.3 program. In the baseline period (1991-2010), suitable regions for rain-fed wheat cultivation were mainly located in west and northwestern regions of Kurdistan Province namely, Baneh, Marivan and Saqez stations  which cover about 28.6 % of the total province area. Results of agroclimatic zoning during the future period showed that suitable regions area will increase by 34.4 % (63 % of the total area) under B1, A1B and A2 scenarios. No significant difference was observed between three climate change scenarios.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Global warming
  • Climatic zoning
  • Global circulation model
  • Seasonal rainfall
  • Wheat

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