بررسی تغییرات زمانی و مکانی خشکسالی هواشناسی براساس شاخص بارش- تبخیر تعرق استاندارد شده در ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد گروه مهندسی منابع طبیعی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس، ایران

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی منابع طبیعی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه هواشناسی کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی فناوری و کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

خشکسالی از زیان‌‌بارترین مخاطرات طبیعی است که از نظر فراوانی رخداد و میزان خسارات وارده در صدر قرار دارد. در این تحقیق، به ‌منظور تحلیل خشکسالی از شاخص بارندگی - تبخیر تعرق استاندارد شده (SPEI) از 54 ایستگاه سینوپتیک برای دوره آماری 64 ساله (2014-1951) استفاده شد. جهت پایش زمانی و مکانی خشکسالی، مقادیر شاخص در مقیاس‌های زمانی  12، 24 و 48 ماهه محاسبه و روندیابی شد. روند تغییرات ، دما و بارش نیز طی مقیاس­های زمانی مورد مطالعه با استفاده از آزمون تحلیل روند من-کندال مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد، روند شاخص SPEI طی دوره آماری مورد بررسی در بخش وسیعی از کشور  افزایشی است، این در حالی‌ است که روند دما و بارش در اکثر ایستگاهها به ترتیب افزایشی و کاهشی است. براین اساس، شاخص SPEI می‌تواند به عنوان ابزار مفیدی در زمینه پایش و پیش‌آگاهی خشکسالی در ایران مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatio-temporal variations of meteorological drought using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Eghtedar Nezhad 1
  • O. Bazrafshan 2
  • J. Bazrafshan 3
1 M. Sc. Graduate of Natural Resources Engineering department, Faculty of Agriculture and natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Natural Resources Engineering department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Depatment of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

Drought is one of the most damaging natural hazards that it is placed in the first order in terms of both the frequency of occurrence and the magnitude of created damages. In this study, we used the standardized precipitation - evapotranspiration drought index (SPEI) for analysis of drought in the 54 synoptic stations for a 64 years (1951- 2014) period. For drought monitoring and regionalization, the SEPI values were calculated in 12, 24 and 48 months timescales. The trend of rainfall, temperature and SEPI was investigated using Mann-Kendall test during the study period. The results showed that an increasing trend for drought and temperature and decreasing trend for rainfall. Considering the correlation of drought and temperature, the findings of study confirmed that SEPI had a good performance for monitoring drought across Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Drought monitoring
  • SPEI
  • Trend Analysis
  • Iran

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