ارزیابی اثرگذاری تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد گندم آبی رقم مهرگان در شرایط تنش خشکی (مطالعه موردی: ورامین)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری هواشناسی کشاورزی، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران

2 استاد هواشناسی کشاورزی، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه زراعت، دانشکده تولیدات گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، ایران

4 استاد هواشناسی کشاورزی، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ایران

چکیده

به منظور بررسی اثرگذاری تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد گندم آبی رقم مهرگان در شرایط تنش خشکی، آزمایشی در قالب طرح بلوک‌های کامل تصادفی (CRBD) در 3 تکرار با پنج تیمار آزمایشی شامل؛ ]کشت معمول منطقه در شرایط بدون تنش (شاهد) (T1)، تنش در مرحله چکمه‌ای (T2)، تنش در مرحله گلدهی (T3)، تنش در مرحله شیری شدن (T4)، و تنش در مرحله خمیری شدن (T5)[، در شهرستان ورامین انجام شد. در این پژوهش شبیه‌سازی اقلیم آینده، با بهره‌گیری از مدل گردش عمومی HadGEM تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 در دو دوره 2025 و 2055 (2010-2039 و 2069-2040)، توسط مدل AgMIP با استفاده از داده‌های اقلیمی بلند مدت مربوط به دوره پایه (1980-2009) صورت گرفت. همچنین برای شبیه‌سازی رشد و نمو گندم از مدل SSM-Wheat استفاده شد. بر پایه یافته‌ها، فراسنجه‌های دمای کمینه و بیشینه در دوره‌های 2025 و 2055 تحت سناریوهای RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 افزایش یافت. درحالی‌که میزان بارش در دوره‌های 2025 و 2055 تحت سناریوهای RCP4.5 به‌ترتیب 4/9 و 21 درصد افزایش یافت. ولی تحت سناریو RCP8.5 به‌ترتیب 9/1 و 8/2 درصد کاهش یافت. رخداد تنش خشکی باعث کوتاه شدن طول دوره مراحل فنولوژیک از جمله؛ تعداد روز تا گلدهی، رسیدگی و طول دوره پر شدن دانه در شرایط تغییر اقلیم شد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که بیشترین کاهش میزان ماده خشک مربوط به شرایط رخداد تنش در مرحله چکمه‌ای در دوره 2055 با 4 درصد و بیشترین کاهش عملکرد در مرحله گلدهی با 2/10 درصد در دوره 2025 تحت سناریو RCP4.5 دیده شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of climate change effects on irrigated wheat CV. Mehregan yield under drought stress condition (Case study: Varamin)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeid Shiukhy Soqanloo 1
  • Mohammad Mousavi Baygi 2
  • Benjamin Torabi 3
  • Mahmoud Raeini Sarjaz 4
1 Ph.D. student of Agrometeorology, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran
2 Professor of agrometerology, department of water engineering, agriculture faculty,Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran
3 Assistance Professor f Agronomy group, Gorgan University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Iran.
4 Professor Agrometeorology, Department of Water Engineering, Sari Agricultural and Natural Resources University, Iran.
چکیده [English]

To evaluate the effects of climate change on irrigated wheat yield, Cv. Mehregan, under drought stress condition, a completely randomized block design (CRBD) experiment was carried out during 2019-2020 cropping season in Varamin, Iran. Five treatments of Control (T1), without stress, drought stress in booting stage (T2), flowering stage (T3), milking stage (T4) and doughing stage (T5) were assigned to three replications. In this study, simulation of the future climate, 2025 and 2055 (2010-2039 and 2069-2040), were performed using the outputs of HadGEM general circulation model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. For this purpose outputs of AgMIP model were employed using long-term climatic data of the base period (1980-2009). Based on these findings, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the minimum and maximum temperature parameters might increase for the 2025 and 2055 periods. Also, under RCP4.5 scenario rainfall might increase by 9.4% and 21%, for 2025 and 2055 periods, respectively. However, under RCP8.5 scenario, it might decrease by 1.9% and 2.8%, respectively. Drought stress shortened the phonological stages, the number of days after planting to flowering, ripening and the grain filling periods under climate change conditions. The results also showed that under RCP4.5 scenario in 2025 period the highest decrease in dry matter (4 percent) and seed yield (10.2 percent), due to stress condition, occur during booting and flowering stages, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • AgMIP Model
  • climate change
  • Drought stress
  • Phonological stages
  • Scenario
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