Evaluation of economical vulnerability to climatic fluctuations (Case study: ‎Khorasan Razavi province)‎

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Abstract

Climatic changes have severe effects on water and soil sources in any given region. To ‎study ‎the ‎resulting fluctuations of climatic factors in different regions for possible ‎adaptation policies to ‎new ‎climate events is of great importance. A possible approach to ‎study the damage on economic ‎activities caused by climatic fluctuations‎ is to calculate ‎vulnerability index. To achieve this goal, ‎Vulnerability Index (VI) ‎in the period of 1994-‎‎2014 has been calculated for 11 regions of Khorasan ‎Razavi province. The ‎components ‎of climatic fluctuations vulnerability index included two types ‎of ‎shocks (permanent ‎shocks and recurrent shocks). The shocks included temperature ‎fluctuations, ‎‎precipitation, floods and increasing aridity. The results of the index suggest that ‎in ‎Khorasan Razavi ‎province in the period of study, Torbat heydarieh had the highest and ‎Chenaran ‎had the lowest economic damage from ‎climate change. The average index of ‎vulnerability to ‎fluctuations in the climate Khorasan Razavi province is 47.04 (above-‎average vulnerability of ‎the ‎developing countries). It is suggested that different agencies ‎for planning and allocating funds ‎for ‎negative impacts of changing climatic factors may ‎find these indices results quite useful and ‎beneficial for further studies.

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