Journal of Agricultural Meteorology

Journal of Agricultural Meteorology

Evaluation of agricultural drought under climate change scenarios with SWAT model (Case study: Atrak watershed)

Document Type : Thechnical Note

Authors
S. H. Sanaeinejad
مهدیه Poornamdari
Water engineer department, agricultural faculty, Ferdowsi University,Mashhad
10.22125/agmj.2024.453509.1167
Abstract
Determining the climatic and hydrologic characteristics of each watershed is essential for agro-climatic and water resources studies of given region. Observation of rainfall, temperature and other meteoroidal variables, as well as drought monitoring plays a significant role in understanding the conditions of the watershed under BNU ESM Model, RCP2.6 climate change scenarios (Scenario 3) during the future period. The current research was conducted with the aim of determining drought conditions in the Atrak River sub-basin using the SWAT model. According to the SRI index the highest projected drought index value during the future period under scenario 3 is be equal to 15 and, which is 5 units more than the corresponding baseline period. According to the SSWI index, the highest occurrence of drought in future periods is under scenario 3in projected to be to be 10. In general, under all selected scenarios and in the entire study area, agricultural drought has a lower number of occurrences than hydrological drought. Based on the results, in all scenarios, the average number of hydrological and agricultural droughts will increase compared to the baseline period. The longest period of hydrological drought in the next 30 years is equal to 70 months, which occurs under the 4th climate change scenario (BNU ESM Model, RCP8.5). It should be noted that the longest period of agricultural drought is calculated as 70 months, which would occur under scenario 4. The results showed that the response of hydrological and agricultural droughts to climate change will not be the same, and agricultural droughts responds more significantly.
Keywords
Agricultural Drought
Atrak basin
Climate change
SWAT Model
Subjects
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