Journal of Agricultural Meteorology

Journal of Agricultural Meteorology

Modeling the effects of climate change on rainfed and irrigated wheat production in Gilan province

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Seyed Mohammadreza Mahdavian 1
Fatemeh Askari 1
Mehran Gholami 2
Shariyar Sobhezahedi 3
Faezeh Shabanzadeh 4
1 Researcher ,Economic, Social and Extension Research Department, Gilan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization(AREEO), Rasht, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Crop & Horticulture Department, Gilan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization(AREEO), Rasht, Iran
3 Researcher, Forestry, Rangeland and Watershed Research Department, Gilan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization(AREEO), Rasht, Iran
4 Responsible for statistics and data of the General Directorate of Meteorology of Gilan Province
10.22125/agmj.2024.395251.1150
Abstract
Climate change, as one of the important challenges affecting the earth's ecosystems, while creating limitations in the production of sustainable products, has also had a negative impact on social and environmental aspects. Also, climate change will directly affect the agricultural sector through changes in climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall and humidity. Thus, in the current research, the effects of climate change on wheat production separately from rainfed and irrigated in Rudbar city of Gilan province will be investigated. For this reason, the data of Manjil meteorological station and the agricultural statistics of Rudbar city during the years 1379-1399 and the econometric approach of ARDL have been used. The results showed that the type of influence of climate variables average temperature, average precipitation and relative humidity on the amount of rainfed and irrigated wheat production in the long term is significant and similar; However, the effect of the mentioned variables on the production of rainfed wheat was more than that of irrigated wheat. So, with a one percent increase in the average temperature, the amount of rainfed and irrigated wheat production will decrease by 3.04 and 1.2 percent, respectively. Also, with a 1% increase in rainfall, the amount of rainfed and irrigated wheat production will increase by 0.57% and 0.4%, respectively. On the other hand, with an increase of one unit of relative humidity, the amount of rainfed and irrigated wheat production will increase by 0.28 and 0.06 units. In order to reduce the negative effects of climate change, it is suggested to inform producers about the consequences of climate change and to cultivate resistant species suitable for the climate of each region.
Keywords
Modeling
Climate Change
Wheat
Temperature
Precipitation
Subjects
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