Spatial-statistical analysis of the predicted precipitation of Iran using HADCM3 atmospheric-oceanic coupled model

The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial distribution of daily observed precipitation of Iran during baseline (1970-2010) and future (2011-2040) periods using outputs of HADCM3 coupled atmosphericoceanic (GCM) model. For downscaling these outputs a statistical model namely SimCLIM were used and calibrated. Required data were retrieved from National Center Environmental Prediction (NCEP) which provides a dataset for 1961-2100 period. The data of GCM model of 1970 to 2010 were used. SimCLIM weather generator was applied for, downscaling future prediction during period of 2011-2040. Furthermore, using spatial-statistical tool in Geographical Information System (GIS), the Local Moran and hot spots methods, observed and predicted dispersion and changes of precipitation were examined. The results of the study showed an increasing long-term trend in countryand#39;s precipitation with average amount of 5.1 millimeter, which is more obvious in Caspian Sea coasts, northwest and also central parts of Iran, especially some parts of Yazd and Isfahan provinces, while precipitation has decreased in southern parts of the country. The results of local Moran spatial analysis of observed and predicted precipitation showed that no-clustered precipitations, that is the low precipitations of southeast and central parts of Iran, have decreased, which indicates the rising trend of precipitation in future period in these regions. Besides, the existence of a cluster of rising precipitation in northeast of the country is observed which indicates that in the future, northeast parts of the country will experience increasing trend of precipitation. This can be confirmed by generated hot spots map also.andnbsp;