بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر ویژگی‌های دوره‌های ترسالی و خشکسالی‌ (مطالعه موردی: ایستگاه‌های ارازکوسه و تمر در استان گلستان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه گنبد‌کاووس

2 استادیار گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه گنبد‌کاووس

چکیده

انتظار می‌رود تغییر اقلیم با تغییر مقدار و توزیع زمانی بارش سبب تغییر احتمال خشکسالی و ترسالی‌ها در بعضی مناطق ‌شود. این اثرات در مناطقی مانند استان گلستان با اقلیم‌های متفاوت، بارزتر است. در این پژوهش به منظور بررسی پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم در دو ایستگاه باران‌سنجی با اقلیم متفاوت، اقدام به تجزیه و تحلیل شدت، تداوم و فراوانی ترسالی‌ها و خشکسالی‌ها دردوره پایه (1986-2005) و آینده شد. با استفاده از مدل ریزمقیاس‌نمایی SDSM با در نظر گرفتن مدل گردش عمومی جو بر اساس گزارش پنجم هیئت بین‌الدول (AR5)  و سناریوهای انتشار 6/2RCP، 5/4RCP و 5/8RCP، سری‌های زمانی بارش در دوره آینده اول (2031 تا 2050) و دوره آینده دوم (2051 تا 2070) پیش‌گویی شد. بعد از اطمینان از کارایی مدل در بازتولید داده‌های بارش در دوره پایه، مقادیر شاخص‌های بارش استاندارد و بارش استاندارد نسبی در پنجره‌های زمانی مختلف محاسبه و با شمارش تعداد ماه‌های طبقات ترسالی و خشکسالی و همچنین استفاده از زنجیره مارکف مرتبه اول، ویژگی‌های خشکسالی آینده نسبت به دوره پایه مقایسه گردید. نتایج نشان داد که در دو ایستگاه ارازکوسه و تمر احتمال خشکسالی‌ها در آینده افزایش می‌یابد. همچنین، با افزایش پنجره زمانی بارش استاندارد، تداوم تمام طبقات تحت هر سه سناریو افزایش پیدا خواهد کرد. از طرف دیگر با افزایش پنجره زمانی شاخص استاندارد از شدت ترسالی‌ها و خشک‌سالی‌های کاهش می‌یابد، در صورتی‌که تداوم آن‌ها افزایش می‌یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The effect of climate change on wet and dry spells’ characteristics (Case study: Arazkuse and Tamar stations in Golestan Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Bahlake 1
  • A. Fathabadi 2
  • H. Rouhani 2
  • S. M. Seyedian 2
1 M. Sc. Student of Watershed Management, College of Agriculture & Natural resources, Gonbad e Kavus University, Gonbad e Kavus, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Range and Watershed Management, College of Agriculture & Natural resources, Gonbad e Kavus University, Gonbad e Kavus, Iran
چکیده [English]

As a result of global warming a significant change in wet and dry spells pattern is expected. These variations would be more significant in regions with diverse climates like Golestan province, Iran. In this research, the impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of droughts are assessed using Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPI) in two raingauges stations namely Arazkuse and Tamar. The rainfall data for baseline period (1986-2005) for both stations were collected and examined. The projections of rainfall amount for two future periods, 2031–2050 and 2051–2070, obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs were downscaled under three representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM). After evaluation of skill of WG model in simulation of historical rainfall data, SPI and relative SPI values in different time steps were calculated. Then by using first-order Markov chains drought characteristics during baseline and future period were compared. The results showed that probability of droughts in the future in both Tamar and Arazkuse stations, would increase. With increasing SPI time scale, duration of all drought classes is projected to decrease in the future under all three RCP scenarios.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Downscaling
  • SDSM
  • Markov chain
  • SPI Indices
  • Drought

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هواشناسی کشاورزی
دوره 5، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 10
جلد 5، شماره 2، پاییز و زمستان 1396
اسفند 1396
صفحه 11-23

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