بررسی تاثیر تغییراقلیم بر شاخص دما-رطوبت (مطالعه موردی : ایستگاه‌های رامسر و بابلسر)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آب. دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری،

2 گروه آبیاری ، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی ، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

3 مؤسسه تحقیقات علوم دامی کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، کرج، ایران.

4 کارشناس وزارت جهادکشاورزی، معاونت امور دام، مرکز اصلاح نژاد و بهبود تولیدات دامی.

چکیده

افزایش گاز‌های گلخانه‌ای و گرمایش فراگیر جهانی باعث برهم‌خوردن تعادل سامانه اقلیمی کره‌ی زمین شده است. افزایش توامان دما و رطوبت فراتر از یک آستانه مشخص باعث ایجاد تنش در دام‌ها و افت کمی و کیفی تولیدات نظیر شیر می شود. جهت ارزیابی تاثیر تنش‌گرمایی بر دام‌ها از معیاری به نام شاخص دما-رطوبت (THI) استفاده می‌شود. هدف از این پژوهش بررسی تاثیر تغییراقلیم بر شاخص THI در دو ایستگاه‌ منتخب بابلسر و رامسر می باشد. به این منظور، مقادیر THIبا استفاده از نرم افزار SDSM تا سال 2100 تحت سه سناریو RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 ریزمقیاس نمایی شد. نتایج نشانگر وجود روند مثبت و معناداری در مقادیر طی دوره پایه(1961-2005) و آینده است و با نزدیک شدن به سال 2100 تعداد روزهای همراه با تنش گرما-رطوبت افزایش یافته و کلاس‌های شدیدتری از تنش بوقوع خواهد پیوست. یافته‌های این تحقیق نشان داد که شرایط تنش در بابلسر شدیدتر از رامسر بوده به طوری که در دوره پایه ایستگاه‌های رامسر و بابلسر به ترتیب 4 و 5 ماه از سال، تنش را تجربه کرده اند در حالیکه مطابق پیش نگری، تا انتهای قرن حاظر این عدد به ترتیب به 6 و 7 ماه از سال افزایش می‌یابد. به علاوه بر اساس نتایج، در دوره پایه روز‌های دارای کلاس تنش اضطراری (مرگ دام‌های شیری‌) در هیچ یک از ایستگاه‌های مورد بررسی ثبت نشده است اما در چشم انداز آینده دور (2100 - 2071) در ایستگاه‌های رامسر و بابلسر به ترتیب دو و شش روز از سال شرایط تنش اضطراری بوقوع می‌پیوندد که هشداری بسیار جدی برای صنعت تولید و پرورش دام در استان مازندران به حساب می‌آید.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Climate change impacts on Temperature-Humidity Index, (Case Study: Ramsar and Babolsar stations)

نویسندگان [English]

  • shamim Sheikhi Arjanki 1
  • mehdi nadi 2
  • Javad Rahmaninia 3
  • Behrouz Mohammad Nazari 4
1 Irrigation Department . Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural sciences and Natural Resources University.
2 Irrigation dept. faculty of agricultural engineering , Sari agricultural sciences and natural resources university
3 Animal Science Research Institute of Iran, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Karaj, Iran
4 Expert of the Ministry of Agriculture - Jihad, Deputy of Livestock Affairs, Animal Breeding and Productions Improvement Center.
چکیده [English]

Rising greenhouse gases and the resulting increase temperature have disrupted the balance of the earth climate system. Combined increase in temperature and humidity above a certain threshold causes stress in livestock like dairy cows, which reduces milk production. To assess the effect of heat stress on livestock, a so-called temperature-humidity index (THI) is used. The aim of this study is to investigate the possible effects of climate change on THI in two stations located in north of Iran namely, Babolsar and Ramsar For this purpose, the projected values of THI under three climate change scenarios i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 were downscaled using SDSM weather generator. The results showed that there exist a significant positive trend in THI time series in both baseline (1961-2005) and future periods. According to results of this study, it is projected that number of days with heat stress would increase and more severe classes of THI will occur. The findings also indicated that the stress conditions in Babolsar have been more severe than Ramsar, such that, during the baseline period, Ramsar and Babolsar stations had 4 and 5 months of a year with heat stress , respectively, while it is projected that by the end of the century, these figures will increase to 6 and 7 months, respectively. Besides, the results showed that in the baseline period days with severe stress class (risk of mortality of dairy cattle) were not recorded in any of the studied stations, but for the far future period (2071-2100) in Ramsar and Babolsar stations, severe condition is projected to occur in two and six days of the year, respectively, which is a serious warning for the province's livestock industry.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • Heat stress
  • dairy cow
  • Mazandaran
  • THI
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