مقایسه شاخص‌های SPI، RDI و SPEI جهت پایش خشکسالی در شرایط تغییر اقلیم (مطالعه موردی: ایستگاه کرمانشاه)
20.1001.1.23453419.1400.9.1.3.0

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.

2 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

10.22125/agmj.2021.249498.1103

چکیده

در سال‌های اخیر در اثر پدیده گرمایش جهانی و تغییرات عوامل هواشناسی، رخداد خشکسالی در مناطق مختلف جهان افزایش یافته است. هدف از پژوهش حاضر پایش خشکسالی با استفاده از شاخص‌های SPI، RDI و SPEI و بررسی خصوصیات این پدیده (شدت، بزرگی و تداوم خشکسالی) در در شرایط تغییر اقلیم در ایستگاه کرمانشاه طی دوره آماری 1963 تا 2019 می‌باشد. پنجره‌های زمانی مورد بررسی 6، 12 و 24 ماهه بودند. جهت برآورد مقادیر تبخیرتعرق پتانسیل (ETp) از معادله هارگریوز-سامانی استفاده شد. روندیابی سری داده‌ها با آزمون من-کندال انجام شد. همچنین برای تعیین نقاط تغییر و جهش در سری زمانی، روش من-کندال رتبه‌ای، بکار رفت. نتایج نشان داد در دوره مطالعاتی، مقادیر دمای هوا و ETp در ایستگاه کرمانشاه افزایش یافته است در حالی که مقادیر بارش کاهش نشان داد. حساسیت دو شاخص RDI و SPEI به تغییرات اقلیمی بیش‌تر از شاخص SPI به دست آمد. بر اساس نتایج، در پنجره زمانی 6 ماهه، و در شاخص‌های SPI و RDI، بزرگی خشکسالی و ترسالی در دوره بعد از 1994 (سال جهش) در قیاس با دوره قبل از آن، کاهش یافته است در حالی که در شاخص SPEI این حالت فقط در شرایط ترسالی مشاهده شد و در شرایط خشکسالی تغییرات این دو دوره قابل ملاحظه نبود. در هر 3 شاخص و در پنجره‌های زمانی 12 و 24 ماه، بزرگی خشکسالی در دوره بعد از سال 1994 نسبت به دوره قبل از آن، افزایش نشان داد. در پنجره‌های زمانی 12 و 24 ماه، تغییرات بزرگی خشکسالی دو شاخص RDI و SPEI برای هر دو دوره قبل و بعد از 1994 بیش‌تر از SPI بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparison of SPI, RDI and SPEI indices for drought smonitoring under climate change conditions (Case study: Kermanshah station)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Jaefar Nikbakht 1
  • Fatemeh Hadeli 2
1 Department Of water Engineering, Agricultural Faculty, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.
2 Water Engineering, Agricultural Faculty, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In recent years, due to global warming and changes in meteorological variables, drought occurrence has increased in different regions of the world. The purpose of this research was comparison of SPI, RDI and SPEI indices for drought monitoring under climate change conditions in Kermanshah station during the period 1963-2019. The possible effect of climate change on drought characterestic (intensity, severity and duration) was also examined. The indices were calculated in three time windows, i.e. 6, 12 and 24 months. Potential evapotranspiration (ETp) was estimated by Hargreaves-Samani equation. The trend analysis of drought time series was performed using Mann-Kendall test and the change point of the series was determined by Sequential Mann-Kendall method. The results indicated that in study station, air temperature and ETp amounts have been increased but the rainfall showed a decreasing trend. RDI and SPEI indices were found to be more sensitive to climate chage comparing to SPI. In 6month time window for SPI and RDI indices, drought severity have decreased after the change point (year 1994) compared to the previous period whereas in case of SPEI, there was no significant difference between two periods. For all 3 indices, in 12 and 24month time windows, drought severity has increased after the year 1994 whereas wet year severity has decreased. Also, in these time scales, calculated severity values of RDI and SPEI were more than SPI for before and after the year 1994.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Drought
  • Trend
  • Time window
  • Kermanshah
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