اثر تغییرات کوتاه‌‍‌ و بلندمدت اقلیمی بر عملکرد گندم دیم در استان کرمان
20.1001.1.23453419.1400.9.1.4.1

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

بخش تحقیقات اقتصادی، اجتماعی و ترویج کشاورزی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان کرمان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و

10.22125/agmj.2021.240481.1099

چکیده

هدف از تحقیق حاضر، بررسی اثرات کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت متغیرهای اقلیمی (دما و بارش فصول بهار و زمستان) بر عملکرد محصول گندم دیم در استان کرمان (ایستگاه کرمان) بوده است. بدین منظور از داده‌های دوره‌ زمانی 95-1363 و رهیافت الگوی خود رگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی استفاده شد. آزمون کرانه‌ها، مؤید وجود هم‌انباشتگی بین متغیرها بوده و نشان داد که در بلندمدت، بین دو متغیر اقلیمی و عملکرد گندم دیم رابطه‌ی مثبت و معنی‌داری وجود دارد. مقادیر کشش‎های بلندمدت متغیرهای دما و بارش فصول بهار و زمستان به‌ترتیب ۷۱/۱، 4/0، ۳۶/۰ و ۵۲/۱ به‌دست آمد. بدین معنی که در بلندمدت با افزایش/کاهش متغیرهای یاد شده، عملکرد گندم دیم افزایش/کاهش خواهد یافت. همچنین ضرایب متغیرهای بارش بهار، بارش زمستان و دمای زمستان در کوتاه‌مدت به‌‌ترتیب 191/0، 169/0 و 611/0 به دست آمد. بر این اساس، یک درصد افزایش در بارش بهاره موجب حدود 19/0 درصد افزایش در عملکرد گندم دیم و یک درصد افزایش در بارش زمستانه منجر به کاهشی 16/0 درصدی می‌شود. همچنین، یک درصد افزایش در دمای زمستان باعث 61/0 درصد افزایش در عملکرد گندم دیم در کوتاه‌مدت خواهد شد. مطابق این نتایج، پاسخ عملکرد گندم دیم به تغییرات متغیرهای اقلیمی در بلندمدت به مراتب معنی‌دارتر است. ضریب مدل تصحیح خطا کوتاه‌مدت نیز منفی و در سطح یک درصد معنی‌دار بود که رابطه‌ی بلندمدت پایدار بین کلیه متغیرهای مدل را تأیید نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Effect of short and long term climate variations on rainfed wheat yield in Kerman province

نویسنده [English]

  • Mahdiyeh Saei
Kerman Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Economic, Social and Extension Research Department, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]

The aim of present study is to investigate the short and long-term effects of temperature and rainfall variations on rainfed wheat yield in Kerman province (Kerman station). For this purpose, time series data of these variables for the period of 1363-95 were retrieved and analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). The bounds testing confirmed the existence of cointegration and long-term significant relationships between climatic variables and the rainfed wheat yield. The long-term elasticity of temperature and rainfall in spring and winter were 1.71, 0.4, 0.36 and 1.52, respectively. Also, in case of the short term period, the correlation coefficients of spring rainfall, winter rainfall and winter temperature are 0.191, 0.169 and 0.611, respectively. Therefore, one percent increase in spring rainfall would cause approximately 0.19 % increase in yield. Similarly, one percent increase in winter rainfall leads to 0.16 percent increase in yield and one percent increase in winter temperature causes 0.61 percent increase in rainfed wheat yield. Based on these results, long term climatic variations are more responsible for overall observed yield trend. The coefficient of Error Correction Model (ECM) of the short-term variations is negative and significant at 99% level of confidence which confirms the long-term relationship between all model variables.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Autoregressive Distributed Lag model
  • Cointegration
  • ECM
  • Wheat yield
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