پیش‌نگری خشکسالی با استفاده از داده‌های گزارش پنجم ارزیابی تغییر اقلیم در منطقه بیرجند

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس آموزشی گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بیرجند و دانش‌آموخته دکتری آبیاری و زهکشی، دانشکده آب و خاک، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب ، دانشکده آب و خاک ، دانشگاه زابل، زابل ، ایران

3 استادیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران

4 استادیار گروه زراعت و اصلاح نباتات دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران

10.22125/agmj.2020.221273.1091

چکیده

خشکسالی از گسترده‌ترین و مخرب‌ترین بلایای طبیعی است که پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم موجب افزایش رخداد آن شده است. در این مطالعه، با استفاده از خروجی های 5 مدل‌ از مجموعه CMIP5 پیشنهادی در گزارش پنجم هیات بین الدول تغییر اقلیم  (شامل: MIROC-ESM، GFDL- ESM2M، HadGEM2-ES، CSIRO-MK3.6 و IPSL-CM5A-LR) تحت سناریوهای واداشت تابشی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 و ریزگردانی آن‌ها به کمک مدل آماری LARS-WG، داده‌های بارش و دما برای دوره آینده(2055-2025) پیش نگری شد. سپس با استفاده از این داده‌ها، وضعیت خشکسالی در منطقه مطالعاتی بیرجند به کمک شاخص خشکسالی پالمر خودواسنج (SC-PDSI) طی دوره پایه (2005-1975) و آینده مورد مقایسه قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان‌دهنده آن است که طی سال‌های آینده شرایط خشکسالی نسبت به دوره پایه افزایش می یابد که این مسئله می تواند از پیامدهای وقوع تغییر اقلیم در منطقه باشد. در دوره آماری (2035- 2026) بر اساس پیش‌نگری مدل‌ها تحت هر دو سناریو و مقادیر شاخص SC-PDSI، شدت خشکسالی کشاورزی بیش از سالهای دیگر دوره آینده است. نتایج همچنین نشان می‌دهد ، مدل‌های MIROC-ESM و CSIROMK 3.6 و نیز سناریو 8.5 بیشترین تعداد سال همراه با خشکسالی را در آینده پیش‌نگری می‌کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Projection of agricultural drought using fifth IPCC assessment report data (Case study: Birjand Region)

نویسندگان [English]

  • F. Hajiabadi 1
  • F. Hassanpour 2
  • M. Yaghoobzadeh 3
  • H. Hammami 4
1 Educational Expert of Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, University of Birjand and Ph. D. Graduate of Irrigation and Drainage, Department of Water Engineering, College of Water and Soil, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, College of Water and Soil, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran
4 Assistant Professor. Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran
چکیده [English]

Drought is one of the most widespread and devastating phenomenon which has been more frequent due to climate change consequences in recent decades. The aim of this study is to project the agricultural drought in Birjand station, Iran using outputs of five GCM models approved in IPPC fifth assessment report, AR5, namely MIROC-ESM, GFDL-ESM2M, HADGEM2-ES, CSIRO-MK3.6 and IPSL-CM5A-LR under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The retrieved outputs were downscaled using LARS-WG statistical model for the future period (2055-2025). For monitoring the drought the Self Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity index (SC-PDSI) during the baseline (1975- 2005) and future period was used. The results indicated that occurrence of droughts during future period will increase comparing to baseline, which might be caused by climate change in the study region. Models projections under both scenario revealed that the (2026-2035) period would experience more severe drought comparing to remaining years. According to results, the highest number of drought events in future period was projected by MIROC-ESM and CSIROMK 3.6, models under RCP8.5 scenario.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • AOGCM Models
  • climate change
  • Drought
  • LARS-WG model
  • Iran
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