تحلیل چندمتغیره خشکسالی‌های هواشناسی در ایران با استفاده از شاخص کمبود توأم (JDI)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

2 استاد گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران

10.22125/agmj.2020.215899.1088

چکیده

پایش و پیش‌بینی خشکسالی به عنوان یک پدیده حدی طبیعی، در مدیریت منابع آب و تولیدات کشاورزی اهمیتی ویژه دارد. هدف از مطالعه حاضر، ارزیابی خشکسالی‌های هواشناسی در گستره ایران با استفاده از شاخص کمبود توأم (JDI) و مقایسه آن با SPImod می‌باشد. برای این منظور از داده‌های بارش ماهانه 41 ایستگاه هواشناسی ایران در دوره آماری 2017-1971 استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که شاخص SPImod تغییرات فصلی بارش را به خوبی توصیف می‌کند. چون تحلیل بر مبنای شاخص SPImod به مقیاس‌های زمانی حساس بوده و احتمال ظاهر شدن نتایج ناسازگار در پنجره‌های زمانی مختلف وجود دارد. جهت رفع این نقایص از شاخص کمبود توأم (JDI) استفاده شد که مبتنی بر بسط توزیعی توأم از شاخص‌های SPImod با مقیاس زمانی 1 تا 12 ماهه به کمک توابع مفصل می‌باشد. نتایج کاربست شاخص JDI نشان داد که تعداد ماه‌های خشک (با شاخص منفی) در مناطق غرب، شمال‌غرب و برخی استان‌های شمالی بیشتر از سایر مناطق کشور بوده است. در مرحله بعد، سه مشخصه خشکسالی شامل مدت، شدت و فاصله بین آغاز دو خشکسالی متوالی از سری زمانی JDI استخراج گردید. نتایج همبستگی بین مشخصه‌های خشکسالی حاکی از همبستگی بالای 7/0 بین آن‌ها بود. جهت تحلیل چند‌متغیره مشخصه‌های خشکسالی، برازش 9 تابع مفصل نیز بررسی گردید که از میان آن‌ها، تابع فارلی- گامبل– مورنگسترن به عنوان گزینه برتر برای بسط توزیع سه‌متغیره جهت پایش خشکسالی در ایستگاه‌های مطالعاتی تعیین شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Multivariate Analysis of Meteorological Droughts in Iran Using Joint Deficit Index (JDI)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Z.abihollah Khani Temeliyeh 1
  • H. Rezaei 2
  • R. Mirabbasi Najafabadi 3
1 Ph. D. Student in Water Resources Engineering, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran
چکیده [English]

Drought is a natural phenomenon, therefor Drought monitoring and forecasting, especially the precise timing of its onset and duration, is of particular importance in water resources management and planning to mitigate drought effects. The purpose of this study is to evaluate, the meteorological droughts in the whole country of Iran using the Joint Deficit Index (JDI) and compared its with SPImod. For this purpose, the monthly precipitation data from 41 meteorological stations in Iran were used in the period of 1971-2017. The results showed that the SPImod index can describe seasonal variations of precipitation which is an advantage for this index. On the other hand, analysis based on the SPImod is sensitive to time scales, as it may present contradictory results in different time scales. To correct these defects the Joint Deficit Index (JDI) can be used. The basis of the JDI index is to create a joint distribution of SPImod indices with time scales of 1 to 12-month using copula functions. The results of the JDI index showed that the number of dry months (JDI <0) in the west, northwest, and some northern provinces were more than other parts of the country. In the next step, the drought characteristics, including severity, duration and the inter-arrival time were extracted from the JDI index time series. The results indicated that the correlation among drought characteristics were more than 0.7. In order to trivariate analysis of drought characteristics, the fitness of nine different copula functions were examined that the Farley- Gamble- Morgenstern copula was specified as the best function for constructing the trivariate distribution.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Copula function
  • Drought
  • Joint distribution
  • Nested method
  • Joint Deficit Index
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