بررسی اثرگذاری گرمایش فراگیر بر تغییرات زمانی و مکانی پوشش برف و ماندگاری آن در گستره‌ی دامنه شمالی البرز مرکزی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد هواشناسی کشاورزی، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

2 استاد، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

10.22125/agmj.2020.200876.1071

چکیده

گرمایش جهانی می‌تواند بر حوضه‌های آبریز برفگیر و پراکنش زمانی و مکانی برف، و در نتیجه نیازهای آبی پایین‌دستِ حوضه اثرگذار باشد. ازاین‌رو، هدف این پژوهش بررسی تغییرات مکانی-زمانی پوشش و ماندگاری برف در دامنه شمالی البرز مرکزی می‌باشد. از داده‌های سنجنده MODIS و نمایه NDSI، برای برآورد پهنه پوشش برف در بازه سال‌های 2000 تا 2018 استفاده شد. یافته‌های این پژوهش نشان داد که روندی معنی‌دار و افزایشی در دمای ماه‌های می و ژوئن وجود دارد. از سویی دیگر گرچه روندی در پهنه پوشش برف دیده نشد، ولی تخمین‌گر شیب سن نشان داد که پهنه پوشش برف در ماه ژانویه نزدیک به 220 کیلومتر در سال افت کرده است، که این افت با افزایش میانگین دمای این ماه همبستگی منفی معنی‌داری داشت (77/0-=r). در حالی که در ماه مارس سالانه نزدیک به 60 کیلومتر بر پهنه پوشش برف افزوده شده است. همبستگی مثبت و معنی‌داری (81/0=r) بین پهنه پوشش برف و ارتفاع برف، و همبستگی‌های منفی معنی‌داری (80/0- تا60/0- =r) میان پهنه سالانه پوشش برف و میانگین دمای سالانه هوا دیده شد. این یافته‌ها نشانگر اثر تغییرات زمانی و مکانی دما بر گستره و ماندگاری برف می‌باشند. با کاهش بلندی حوضه از غرب در هراز، با میانگین ارتفاعی 2059 متر، به‌سوی شرق در حوضه تجن، با میانگین ارتفاعی 7/980 متر، از پهنه پوشش برف و ماندگاری آن کاسته می‌شود. از یافته‌های این پژوهش نتیجه‌گیری می‌شود که تغییرات دما در این گستره هم‌روندِ گرمایش فراگیر است، در حالی که این گرمایش بر پراش (واریانس) پهنه پوشش برف اثر گذاشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of the effect of global warming on temporal and spatial changes of snow cover and its durability in the northern slope of Central Alborz

نویسندگان [English]

  • H. Bahrami Pichaghchi 1
  • M. Raeini-Sarjaz 2
  • R. Norooz Valashedi 3
1 M. Sc. Student of Agrometeorology, Water Engineering Department, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
2 Professor in Agrometeorology, Water Engineering Department, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
3 Assistant Professor in Agrometeorology, Water Engineering Department, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
چکیده [English]

Global warming could affect snow-covered watersheds and the temporal and spatial distribution of snow, and thus the water needs below the basin. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the spatio-temporal changes of snow cover and snow retention in the northern aspects of Central Alborz. The Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) extracted from MODIS satellite images was employed to estimate snow cover during 2000 - 2018 intervals. The findings of this study showed that there is a significant and increasing trend in the temperatures of May and June. On the other hand, although there was no trend in the snow cover, the Sen's slope estimator showed that the snow cover in January decreased by about 220 km per year, which had a high negative correlation with the increase in the average temperature of this month. (r = - 0.77), while in March, the snow cover increased by nearly 60 kilometers a year. There was a significant positive correlation (r = 0.81) between snow cover and snow depth, and significant negative correlations (r = -0.80 to r = -0.60) were found between the annual snow cover and the average annual air temperature. These findings indicate that the effect of temporal and spatial changes in temperature on the extent and persistence of snow cover is meaningful. By reduction of the basin’s height from the west in Haraz, with an average height of 2059 m, to the east in the Tajan basin, with an average height of 980.7 m, the snow cover area and its durability reduced. From the findings it is concluded that temperature changes in this region follow the global warming trend, while this warming has affected on the variance of the snow cover extend.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • NDSI
  • MODIS
  • Alborz norther aspect
  • Temperature
  • Snow cover
  • Elevation
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