پهنه‌بندی مکانی تبخیر از تشت و برخی عوامل اقلیمی مؤثر بر آن با روش‌های زمین‌آماری (مطالعه موردی: استان فارس)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشیار بخش علوم خاک، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

مطالعه تغییرات زمانی- مکانی تبخیر از تشت و عوامل اقلیمی مؤثر بر آن در مدیریت منابع آب و برآوردهای تبخیر و تعرق اهمیت دارد. در مطالعه حاضر، این تغییرات با داده‌های ایستگاه‌های منتخب استان فارس با چند روش‌ درون‌یابی زمین‌آماری بررسی و دقت روش‌ها با استفاده از شاخص‌های آماری (R2، MRE، RMSE، NRMSE، GMER و GSDER) ارزیابی شد. تغییرات مکانی متغیرهای اقلیمی از مدل‌های گوسی و کروی با دامنه تأثیر حدود 9 تا 35 کیلومتر تبعیت می‌نماید. کریجینگ نقطه‌ای معمولی با مدل کروی نیم‌تغییر‌نما (با شعاع تأثیر 9/8 تا 35 کیلومتر و نسبت اثر قطعه‌ای 09/0 تا 44/36 درصد و با کلاس تغییرپذیری متوسط تا قوی) برای تخمین تبخیر از تشت (ضریب تعیین 74/0) و عوامل بارشی (ضرایب تعیین 57/0 تا 76/0) و روش وزن‌دهی عکس‌فاصله با توان‌های 2 تا 5 برای تخمین عوامل دمایی (ضرایب تعیین 62/0 تا 87/0) و سرعت باد (ضریب تعیین 73/0) مناسب‌ترین روش‌ها بودند. فاصله مناسب برای ایستگاه‌های باران‌سنجی حدود 35 کیلومتر تعیین شد. بخش‌های شمالی به ویژه شمال‌شرق استان نسبت به بخش جنوبی از تبخیر از تشت (235 میلی‌متر) و سرعت باد (>15 متر بر ثانیه) بیش‌تری برخوردارند. بر این اساس، مدیریت بهینه آب و تجدید نظر در الگوهای کشت در مناطق مرکزی و جنوبی استان پیشنهاد می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatial zoning of pan evaporation and affecting variables using geostatisitc methods (Case study: Fars province)

نویسنده [English]

  • Ali Akbar Moosavi
Associate Professor, Department of Soil Science, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University
چکیده [English]

The study of spatio-temporal variations of pan evaporation is quite important in water resource management and evapotranspiration estimation. In current research, these variations and affecting variables have been exmanied using several geostatisitc methods across Fars province, Iran. The skill of these methods were evaluated by statistical measures including R2, MRE, RMSE, NRMSE, GMER, and GSDER. Spatial variability structure of the studied climatic variables followed the Gaussian and spherical models with influence ranges of 9 to 35 km. The ordinary point kriging with spherical semivariogram model (with influence ranges of 8.9 to 35 km, nugget ratios of 0.09 to 36.44% and variability classes of moderate to strong) was the most suitable method for interpolating of pan evaporation (with R2 of 0.74) and precipitation characteristics (with R2 of 0.57 to 0.76) values. The inverse distance weighting with weighting powers of 2 to 5 was the most suitable method for prediction of temperature (with R2 of 0.62 to 0.87) and wind characteristics (with R2 of 0.73). The optimum distace between the rainguages was determined as 35 km.  In general, the results showed that the northern and especially the northeastern parts of the province had lower temperature (<15 ͦ C) and pan evaporation (235 mm), and higher wind speed (>15 m s-1) in comparison to southern parts. Therfore, precise water resource management and new cropping pattern in these regions of the province may be recommended.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Inverse distance weighting
  • Ordinary kriging
  • Precipitation
  • Temperature
  • Wind speed

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